How Well Did Gachaguanomics Prediction Of $$$ Collapse Work?......

[SIZE=7]Gachagua Warns Investors to Brave for Losses Worth Millions in 24 Hours[/SIZE]
[ul]
[li]by JOY KWAMA on Thursday, 13 April 2023[/li][/ul]

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on Thursday, April 13, warned investors against hoarding dollars stating that they would lose millions from Friday, April 14, after the value of the shilling increases.

Speaking while receiving the first consignment of imported petroleum from the United Arabs Emirates (UAE) under the government-to-government deal, the deputy president stated that the value of the dollar would decrease beginning April 14 while that of the shilling would increase.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsvJZMxWcAA_vrQ?format=jpg&name=small

According to Gachagua, the importation of oil in shillings relieved pressure on the dollar and allowed for its normal circulation in the market.

“Let me ask all those Kenyans, business people and investors who have been holding dollars for speculation purposes to offload your dollars in the market today and tomorrow. It will go down starting today, tomorrow and the day after.
[I][B]

“It’s a piece of honest advice from a truthful man. With what has happened and the 500 million dollars used to purchase fuel every month, the demand for the dollar will come down and the shilling will gain and we don’t want Kenyans to lose money," stated Gachagua.

In addition, he reiterated that the government would not subsidize products in the country explaining that it was not a sustainable move.
[/B][/I]

Instead, Gachagua revealed that the government would subsidize the production of different products that will in turn reduce their cost.
“This is the way to bring down the cost of fuel. That strategy of fuel subsidy is not sustainable. We want to dismiss with contempt those who are calling us and telling us to reinstate subsidized consumption, it cannot work…The government will subsidize production because it is sustainable. This is the practical way of dealing with the high cost of fuel and other products in the country,” Gachagua stated.

Further Gachagua stated that the exchange rate of foreign currencies would regain its stability and in turn support economic recovery and the slow growth of public debt.

“The petroleum imports are paid for in dollars which has of late strained the country’s foreign exchange reserves. This has caused difficulty in US dollars liquidity resulting in rapid depreciation of the Kenyan shillings.

“The country will benefit from the accumulation of foreign reserves of approximately Ksh403 billion (3 billion US dollars) in the next six months,” he added.

The DP received 89,191 metric tons of petrol from United Arabs Emirates (UAE) that arrived on board the MV Norddolphin vessel in Mombasa.

In January 2023, Energy Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir published the new regulations regarding fuel importation into the country - which involved a government-to-government arrangement for the procurement of oil.

The regulations required oil companies to competitively bid for the deal through the open-tender system.

However, with the current 9-month deal, the 96 companies will be left in the cold and can only seek to bid in 2024.

[B][I]Jay Jay[/I][/B]
[B][I]Dont listen to this noise of losses from dollars;

  1. Petroleum products are being procured on credit,in simple term its another loan and this time round the liquidity is being mopped up in shillings leaving Kenya Economy with less circulation and take note arabs dont need shilings in their country so we are still using foreign currency to trade here.
  2. The cost of financing loans went up by over 500M USD as we await asyndicate loan of 500M Usd is expected and it must be paid in either dollars or Euros…loand to be paid back with interest.
  3. investors are not intersted in Long term treasury bonds anymore,meaning less revenue.
  4. Revenue collection stands at less than ksh 1.8 T against collection estimate of around ksh 3.5 T with only two months before the end of financial year.Liquidity keep shrinking day in day out,this means less circulation and less revenue therefore no money to pay for loans in dollars.
  5. The country has been defaulting on loans and in in june/july they wil default on loans agains,shiling will fall properly so just hold your dollars and wait for the movie on the economy that imports everything[/I][/B]

Hio mbica Gachietha amejam karibu atoe fiery optic blast from his eyes.:smiley:

mnachezewa akili tu, mkiuza dollars zenu supply itaenda juu na bei itashuka

[SIZE=7]Meanwhile: Fishy money trail in Sh10bn Ruto fertilizer deal triggers probe[/SIZE]
Friday, April 14, 2023

Suspicious transactions by one of the companies awarded multibillion-shilling tenders to supply subsidized fertilizer have sparked alarm among financial sector regulators, Nation has learned.

Mashambani Farm Inputs Eldoret Ltd was awarded an Sh10.2 billion tender to supply fertilizer to the Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC), but regulators have since raised questions over the cash movements and documents presented to support some of the out-sized transactions.

From large and unexplained cash withdrawals after payments from KNTC to seemingly altered documents supporting big money transactions, the firm has caught the eye of agencies tasked with blocking the movement of illicit funds. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

[SIZE=6]RELATED[/SIZE]
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[li][URL=‘https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/laikipia/police-recover-government-subsidised-fertiliser-at-private-outlet-in-laikipia-4193582’][SIZE=5]Police recover govt subsidised fertiliser in a shop[/SIZE][/li]Laikipia Apr 09
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Sources at two financial sector regulators, who sought anonymity, separately told Nation the firm’s bank accounts were being monitored.
Our sources requested to remain anonymous as they are not allowed to speak to the press without express authority from the institutions’ top brass.
The Financial Reporting Centre, the agency that tracks illicit money, and the Central Bank of Kenya, which regulates the banking sector, are combing through the firm’s activities over the past three months.

The monitoring of the accounts is intended to confirm whether State officials colluded with the company’s directors to embezzle billions of taxpayers’ funds through the fertilizer subsidy program.

President William Ruto initiated the subsidy program as a long-term solution to fluctuating food prices that have dealt a financial blow to millions of households following one of the country’s worst drought spells in recent history, coupled with global challenges like the Russia-Ukraine war.

Kenya has over the years imported food products such as wheat and agricultural inputs like fertilizers from the two warring countries. Their conflict has contributed to sharp increases in food prices. Mashambani Farm Inputs in January signed a contract with KNTC that will see it supply 112,700 metric tonnes of various fertilizers. KNTC is already selling some of the products to Kenyan farmers at subsidized prices.

The contract, a copy of which Nation has obtained, states that Mashambani will supply 20,200 tonnes of MiCrop planting (NPK blend), 24,500 tonnes of MiCrop top-dress and 68,000 tonnes of CAN. All three fertilizer types must be sourced from Yara, a Norwegian company listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange.

Read: Distribute fertiliser fairly

Yara had initially bagged a contract to supply KNTC with 112,700 tonnes of various fertilizers, but it has seemingly subcontracted Mashambani to do the job on its behalf.
Documents the KNTC filed at the National Assembly in preparation for the 2023/24 financial year revealed that the State corporation had contracted Yara to supply it with the agricultural input.
Another firm, ETG, also has a contract with KNTC for the supply of 130,000 tonnes of various fertilizer types. But Mashambani confirmed to Nation that it was subcontracted to supply Yara products to KNTC.
Barely three weeks after the contract was signed, Mashambani received part payment from KNTC. Shortly afterward, the firm sent over Sh320 million to an individual identified as Mr Alfred Rono.

[SIZE=6]Anomaly[/SIZE]
In declaration forms for the funds’ transfer, Mashambani claimed the money was for the purchase of packaging bags. This is an anomaly, as the fertilizer comes already packaged. Going by the math in the declaration form, Mashambani may spend over Sh2 billion on packaging bags for the duration of its supply deal, raising questions as to why such a huge amount would be used on a redundant item.

Read: Subsidised fertiliser too costly, farmers say

When contacted, Mashambani proprietor George Kibet denied that the firm purchased packaging bags. He also denied that Mashambani is packaging fertilizers, saying, no local company has the capacity to package such an amount of fertilizer. o_O

https://nation.africa/resource/image/4198268/landscape_ratio2x1/320/160/296a0ea980d616cc8a6bf5bbfcdfa714/gs/fertliser-ncpb-pix.jpg
[MEDIA=twitter]1646795955033845760[/MEDIA] [MEDIA=twitter]1646819010061774849[/MEDIA]

“There is no single packaging company in Kenya that has the capacity of packaging the number of bags needed to supply farmers in the country with fertilizers. The best that exists can do maybe 20,000 packets in a day, for this case, we needed millions. That would have taken us at least two years to repackage,” he said.
The contract between KNTC and Mashambani says the former is to buy each 50kg bag of MiCrop planting fertilizer at Sh4,650. KNTC will also buy each bag of CAN and Microp top-dress fertilizer at Sh4,550.
When Nation called a Mashambani sales rep, the wholesale prices quoted were significantly higher than those KNTC negotiated for. Microp planting goes for Sh6,150 per 50kg bag. The representative quoted Sh5,400 per bag of Microp top-dressing and CAN.
Yara sells Microp planting at Sh5,250 per bag. Microp top dressing goes for Sh5,200 a bag, with CAN selling at Sh5,150. It is still unclear whether Yara and Mashambani will reconcile the actual wholesale price of the fertilizer supplied and the prices offered to KNTC.
There is no publicly available record indicating that KNTC floated a tender that led to Yara being selected as a supplier. While direct procurement is allowed in some instances, government institutions must inform the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority within 14 days if the goods or services have a value of over Sh500,000.

Our team contacted KNTC boss Pamela Mutua with queries on whether the price differences will somehow be bridged by the government and whether there was any procurement process in selecting Yara and Mashambani Farm Inputs for the lucrative supply deal.
Ms Mutua was yet to respond to our queries by the time of going to press.

Read: Outrage as cheap fertiliser for Kakamega farmers ends up in shops

KNTC is selling each bag of fertilizer for Sh3,500 under the government’s subsidy program. The financial sector regulators have also been drawn to suspicious cash withdrawals by Mashambani officials soon after the KNTC payments.
In one batch of transactions, the officials withdrew close to Sh10 million in cash, citing in declaration forms that the money was for paying salaries. The move was a deviation from the company’s usual policy of paying salaries through bank transfers.
In another batch of withdrawals, the Mashambani bosses withdrew Sh2 million in Nairobi without sufficient explanation on bank declaration forms. After receiving funds from the KNTC, Mashambani Farm Inputs made several payments to different individuals and institutions, with invoices used to support the funds’ transfers.
Several payments appear to have been supported using the same invoice. While the amounts paid changed in each document, the invoice number remained the same. This indicates that the same invoice may have been altered several times to justify the movement of funds.
In total, the amount with supporting invoices was Sh27 million. But Mashambani made payments of over Sh350 million to suppliers without supporting documents.

The contract between KNTC and Mashambani indicates that the state corporation is to buy fertilizer in batches of 28 tonnes each. Curiously, the document trail shows that Mashambani has already delivered 1900 tonnes of fertilizer.
This means, that the firm has made at least 67 deliveries of 28 tonnes each to KNTC in less than three months, a gargantuan task.

Reporting by Brian Wasuna, Adonijah Ndege, Steve Otieno and Dudley Muchiri

A unknown company with a boring name makes hundreds of millions within a month. Wewe na company yako legit catchy name, hadi umelipa msee akaunda logo na ukafungua socials account bado haina kakiru.

[MEDIA=twitter]1646819010061774849[/MEDIA]

hizo companies huundwa haraka sana after deal kupatikana. They can even name them Malenge Inc.

:D:D:D:D

[MEDIA=twitter]1646841878812188674[/MEDIA] [MEDIA=twitter]1647098162493165568[/MEDIA]

Are Things Bad or What… :D:D:D:D

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/343412811_505977198256883_7590920701881392365_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=Z6OBE2251M0AX8r05s2&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=00_AfA8nqZUMoj4VzTRB6mNLzXbSEj9rrtmxfcJuSkJP9PEXw&oe=644C5E6F

:Dhio picha ya riggy g inanimaliza mbaya. Kenyans on Twitter never seize to amaze na hawa viongozi wao. The guy is not even comical; he’s comedy itself

Ni kubaya mkuu. Naona dalili bado ushuru itapanda. I wonder if there is any nation that has ever prospered from overtaxing its people.

[SIZE=7]Stronger dollar to cost Kenyans at the pump[/SIZE]
Thursday, April 27, 2023

Kenyans will bear costs associated with the weakening of the local currency against the US Dollar under the new government-to-government (G2G) oil importation framework.

The G2G model was introduced by the government to alleviate the dollar crisis.

Under the framework, oil marketers will be able to access fuel products and pay using the Kenyan shilling, as opposed to the previous arrangement where they would pay for the products in dollars.

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[li][URL=‘https://nation.africa/kenya/business/small-oil-marketers-say-new-oil-import-deal-will-improve-supply-4167852’][SIZE=5]Small oil marketers say new oil import deal will improve supply[/SIZE][/li]Business Mar 22
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Under the new arrangement, suppliers will be given a six-month period to pay for the oil products using dollars.

The government now says any currency depreciation occurring between the period the product is delivered into the country and the time of payment will be recovered at the pump. o_O:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Energy Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir yesterday said the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra) would recover the money from motorists and other buyers of fuel products, in a format similar to the forex charges for electricity users.

“As a government, we are willing, through Epra, to manage and recover the depreciation at the pump. That is what the LOS (Letter of Support) just does, which is what we do in the energy sector and power, we take the dollar valuation forex loss to the customer,” Mr Chirchir said.

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/343412811_505977198256883_7590920701881392365_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=Z6OBE2251M0AX8r05s2&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=00_AfA8nqZUMoj4VzTRB6mNLzXbSEj9rrtmxfcJuSkJP9PEXw&oe=644C5E6F

Read: Oil import quota fuels industry row

“If we release the products today in Kenyan shillings and the conversion rate varies between today and the time of payment, we will take that variation, through Epra who is allowed by these regulations, to recover that amount from the pump and that requires some government commitment through that LOS,” he said.

[SIZE=6]Cargo shipment[/SIZE]
The first cargo to be delivered under the programme, which landed a week ago, is expected to hit the market in a week’s time when the second cargo is expected to land in the country.

The government says the programme is expected to ease a critical dollar demand that had affected the economy.
The petroleum sector accounts for 35 per cent of the economy’s dollar demand.

Read: Questions emerge over multibillion-shilling oil importation plan

“The G-to-G was to address the bigger economy as opposed to allowing the petroleum sector to suck 35 per cent demand of the dollars and create the challenge of speculative tendencies,” Mr Chirchir said.
But he strongly hinted that the government may not extend the programme past the December deadline of the current six-month contract.
This means the country may return to the Open Tender System (OTS).
“It doesn’t have to be G2G, we can go back to OTS any time with the price recovery and the interbank working. G2G is just there to give us comfort but after six months we should be able to come back. The regulations give options for G2G and OTS…We are using G2G today to ease the pressure on the dollar and address the country’s macro challenges,” he explained.

[email protected]

Like Jay Jay said:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ftq_6bDXgAIxvSW?format=jpg&name=small

[B][I]Jay Jay[/I][/B]
[B][I]Don’t listen to this Gachagua noise on losses from dollars;

  1. Petroleum products are being procured on credit,in simple term its another loan and this time round the liquidity is being mopped up in shillings leaving Kenya Economy with less circulation and take note arabs dont need shilings in their country so we are still using foreign currency to trade here.
  2. The cost of financing loans went up by over 500M USD as we await asyndicate loan of 500M Usd is expected and it must be paid in either dollars or Euros…loand to be paid back with interest.
  3. investors are not intersted in Long term treasury bonds anymore,meaning less revenue.
  4. Revenue collection stands at less than ksh 1.8 T against collection estimate of around ksh 3.5 T with only two months before the end of financial year.Liquidity keep shrinking day in day out,this means less circulation and less revenue therefore no money to pay for loans in dollars.
  5. The country has been defaulting on loans and in in june/july they wil default on loans agains,shiling will fall properly so just hold your dollars and wait for the movie on the economy that imports everything[/I][/B]