Kenyan presidency is decided by only three regions. You win the two of the three regions then you can rest assured your are the president. These regions are GEMA LUO NYANZA and KALENJIN RIFT.
When any of the two regions unite then you can rest be assured whoever the presidential candidate of the coalition from any of the two regions, he shall have won presidency.
You all saw how Raila was strong 2007 and how the substandard election ended. Its because he had the two of the three regions LUO NYANZA and KALENJIN RIFT.
Similarly Kibaki won easily 2002 because he had the two of the three regions GEMA and LUO NYANZA.
Uhuru won easily 2013 and 2017 also because he had the two of the three regions GEMA and KALE RIFT.
When any two of these three regions unite they determine the politics of Kenya and other regions just follow. Even 2022 for Ruto or Raila to win they have to gain two of the three regions.
Without two of the three regions under once pocket i can guarantee you no one can win an election unless you try and rig or manipulate the elections and the consequences of that is what happened in 2007.
elections results were decided a long time ago in 2010 for the next 15 years or so in jimmy wanjigis house attended by raila, uhuru, ruto, kalonzo, mudavadi,wetangula,murathe, wanjigi etc
Luo Nyanza votes are very little. What the voters lack in numbers make up in energy. They are very energised. If Luhya were energised as Luo the presidency would be a Kikuyu & Luhya rotation.
Central Kenya and Rift Valley are the places where voter numbers are very high. If you win in those two you are assured of a win but then the dynamics in the elections are very different.