@Lionheart
Perhaps juvenile minds in here will now understand why the USA is not willing to jump into Haiti willy-nilly … The memory of Kabul is very fresh …
Nabii Zakayo has his eyes on that initial USD: 120 Million plus “Mobilization Fund” being dangled in front of his eyes …
And the potential of other windfalls if the intervention is prolonged.
This saga could have a couple of outcomes :-
the force has limited success in stabilizing the situation on the long run and “bodyguard” the new Haitian Administration for some time.
Much the same as what has happened in Mogadishu.
Just like Mogadishu , the fortunes will go back and forth and Body Bags will quietly return in secrecy and without much fanfare. This is the most likely.
things go “FUBAR” very quickly and our chaps are decimated or bail out in a short time. This is the “Kabul” scenario.
If I was Mr. Barbecue and I felt overwhelmed initially in the conflict … I would withdraw temporarily into the vast friendly jungle countryside , re-organize , strategise , and pick them off one by one.
This playbook has worked very well for Al Shabaab …
Very Well …
1000 Cops are not enough to even cover downtown Port-au-Prince , sensitive assets like the Ports and Haiti Leadership Protection duties.
And we have not yet figured in the casualties …
Who has a better vision of this foolhardy enterprise …???
hii ni karata, instead of taking Kenyan forces directly, let the Haitians come to Kenya for training, then on their way back they will be accompanied by Kenyan forces.
Around this time in 2012 …
“Operation Linda Inchi” had produced amazing results in just 2 months of fighting in Somalia … Al Shabaab were loosing every battle and every territory …
( … I am sure you were smiling - if you were old enough …!! )
Fast forward 2024 …
The Somalis have been unable to form a stable Government or even reliable Governance Structures.
Clanism and political patronage are worse than ever.
The Al Shabaab now control most of rural Somalia.
Despite Millions in Investments , Arms and Training , the SNA is a joke of an Army - it is almost as if they were never trained.
Thousands ( Yes …Thousands …) of Good Kenyan Men and Women have given their lives for this lost cause.
Now the Somalis want all AU Forces out of Somalia by December 2024.
The day AU Forces leave Mogadishu , you can bet Al Shabaab will be there the following day and the entire Somali Leadership will be enjoying tranquility in their palatial Lavington Residencies and their wives busy shopping at the Junction Mall …
Does one smile at a tragedy of that magnitude …???
Sometimes you let people learn with time, because they easily get excited about things they can’t really explain when an imported idea is fed them… They don’t listen or pause to think when they are high on the sound of buzz works like “democratic principles” “international obligations” “standing with our brothers”, “our commitment” “stepping forward to be counted”, yada yada yada…
They only begin to think when the talk simmers down and they have to deal with the aftermath, alone. By then they have even forgotten what they were supporting so aggressively, and why.
They also form the clapping herd. They clap during speeches upon hearing of billions being set aside to improve the living conditions of “our people”, assuming instantly that they are those people, and they have already received it, by faith.
God, please wake these people up!
