This is how we collapse
I think food shortages is how we will collapse. Food prices will continue to rise and become more and more unaffordable. The main reasons are the following:
- Declining EROI
We use fossil fuels for every part of our food production. Mainly in the production of fertilizers, operation of field machinery, transportation, and irrigation. It is estimated that for every calorie of food we eat, we use 10 calories of fossil fuels. As the price of fossil fuels continues to go up, so will food.
- Climate change
Climate change has a negative effect on our food production in many different ways. For example through higher temperatures, increased volatility spread of crop pests, changed weather patterns, heatwaves, droughts and floods. Higher CO2 makes food less nutritious. It also makes other issues I’ve listed here worse, for example water scarcity, loss of pollinators and fisheries decline.
- Water scarcity
Global water scarcity is getting worse which will negatively affect our agriculture systems since 70% of our freshwater usage goes into agriculture.
- Seafood consumption
The outlook on seafood consumption isn’t great either. Overfishing, climate change, ocean acidification and pollution is painting a bleak outlook.
- Topsoil loss
We’re currently losing about 1% a year and will have no topsoil left if current trends continue in about 60 years. For reference, it takes 100 years for an old forest to produce just one inch of top soil.
- Loss of pollinators
The world’s pollinator insects are disappearing which reduces our crop production.
- Peak phosphorus
Although there are large uncertainties, peak phosphorus may happen by 2030.
All these underlying stresses to our food production are getting worse by the year. Food prices are already increasing a lot and world hunger has been on the rise since 2015. What I think will happen soon is multiple simultaneous breadbasket failures which will send food prices skyrocketing.
When food prices go up and people can’t afford to eat, social unrest follows. This is how nations become failed states, how mass migration around the globe is created, how conflicts arise and ultimately how this civilization will collapse.