Food shortages & collapse

This is how we collapse

I think food shortages is how we will collapse. Food prices will continue to rise and become more and more unaffordable. The main reasons are the following:

  • Declining EROI

We use fossil fuels for every part of our food production. Mainly in the production of fertilizers, operation of field machinery, transportation, and irrigation. It is estimated that for every calorie of food we eat, we use 10 calories of fossil fuels. As the price of fossil fuels continues to go up, so will food.

  • Climate change

Climate change has a negative effect on our food production in many different ways. For example through higher temperatures, increased volatility spread of crop pests, changed weather patterns, heatwaves, droughts and floods. Higher CO2 makes food less nutritious. It also makes other issues I’ve listed here worse, for example water scarcity, loss of pollinators and fisheries decline.

  • Water scarcity

Global water scarcity is getting worse which will negatively affect our agriculture systems since 70% of our freshwater usage goes into agriculture.

  • Seafood consumption

The outlook on seafood consumption isn’t great either. Overfishing, climate change, ocean acidification and pollution is painting a bleak outlook.

  • Topsoil loss

We’re currently losing about 1% a year and will have no topsoil left if current trends continue in about 60 years. For reference, it takes 100 years for an old forest to produce just one inch of top soil.

  • Loss of pollinators

The world’s pollinator insects are disappearing which reduces our crop production.

  • Peak phosphorus

Although there are large uncertainties, peak phosphorus may happen by 2030.

All these underlying stresses to our food production are getting worse by the year. Food prices are already increasing a lot and world hunger has been on the rise since 2015. What I think will happen soon is multiple simultaneous breadbasket failures which will send food prices skyrocketing.

When food prices go up and people can’t afford to eat, social unrest follows. This is how nations become failed states, how mass migration around the globe is created, how conflicts arise and ultimately how this civilization will collapse.

As we are already seeing with this current administration is the over reliance on fertilizers as the reduction in yields becomes painfully obvious. To protect these lower yields, people will have to double down on more and more fertilizers.

In many places production is only possible because of the aforementioned chemicals. If you cut their supply off there is a very sharp and sudden withdrawal with few short term alternatives.

Overall I find very few causes for optimism because all aspects of food security are currently giving off big red flags. And they are no longer isolated and temporary - most of these issues are interwoven and now locked in to the way we produce food. There are a thousand and one possible ‘solutions’ but they all require such monumental shifts in behaviour that only serious crisis could possibly trigger them through necessity.

humans deserve death…whats new?

the world has been ending forever ata great grand kids will be told the same, in 70s they predicted by the year 2000 the world will be a ball of ice ,global cooling nuts were also losing it just like their counter points are doing now ! dawa yetu ni asteroid

Man … Kapedo jua inatwanga saidi, tena ile mbaya kapsaa. Whatever it is, shit is getting real …

World is not ending kwenda kabisa it has been around for 4.5 blln years inaisha ati kwa sababu tuko hapa

During the great Greece heat wave in 1987 which killed many people , many thought it was the end . It didn’t happen…