False information being spread internationally.

Hello, talkers need help here lately i have been following a facebook page " https://m.facebook.com/?_rdr#~!/ChinaAfricaProject/ " …inaitwa china africa project jst incase link doesnt work but all the info being spread apo has been negative towards china relation with africa…yeah yeah najua kuna mtu atasema si ka ni false news stop following it …bt ukweli ni jst like how cnn was doing ni wat this stupid guy is doing spreading wrong info about china realtion with africa …Am team china for Africa atleast they are helping not the western who only so africa as filled with stupid ppl…western fed us fish but china is teaching us to fish. Someone tell me if all this figures are right…@spear and the rest(add to it we import electricity bt wat this links says is uncomprehending…correct me if am wrong
[SIZE=6]Why Kenya’s push for nuclear power rests on false or fanciful premises[/SIZE]
Brendon J. Cannon 20 Dec 2017 09:52

High voltage electrical pylons on the outskirts of Kenya’s capital Nairobi. (Thomas Mukoya/Reuters)

Russia, China, South Korea and Slovakia which involve the building of four nuclear power plants with a total output of 4 000 MW. France is apparently also eyeing the potentially lucrative deals which would nearly doubleKenya’s current electricity capacity.

Kenya’s Nuclear Electricity Board secured the global atomic energy agency’s approvalin 2016. It hopes to have the first plant online anywhere from 2022 to 2027, leading a new African push for nuclear power. The only country currently generating nuclear is South Africa.

Other African countries have signed agreements with foreign firms. These include Nigeria’s plans to build plants with Rosatom, the Russian firm. South Africa is also pursuing a deal for new nuclear power plants with the company as is Egypt.

In January, the international nuclear agency concluded that Ghana had made “considerable progress in the development of its nuclear power infrastructure.” Uganda is also reportedly pursuing nuclear energy.

The cost of the Kenya plant is estimated at Sh500 billion. This is costly and, given the current energy consumption patterns in Kenya, would be a massive waste of money.

Kenya’s industrial and consumer demand, economic growth, relative poverty as well as the current grid and distribution network simply do not support this magnitude of power generation at such exorbitant costs.

[SIZE=5]Myths about Kenya’s power situation[/SIZE]
According to the popular narrative, Kenya suffers from the twin evils of electricity that is overly expensive and in short supply. Yet there is strong evidence that Kenya’s power is relatively cheap and that successive governments have exaggerated both it’s economic growth trajectory and its need for a massive increase in power generation.

For example, Kenya has an installed capacity of just over 2 400MW, against a peak demand of just over 1 600MW. This is 800MW above peak hours demand.

While economies are required to have surplus power capacity, excess capacity can lead to higher power bills as consumers are often charged for idle power plants.

Thus the government, while promising ever cheaper power to consumers may actually be undercutting this promise in its pursuit of nuclear power plants and other costly projects that fail to reflect both industrial and private consumer demand.

[SIZE=5]Note of caution[/SIZE]
A recent study by a German engineering consultancy further confirmed how exaggerated government figures about demand have been. It noted that Kenya’s maximum power demand would

grow 72% to 2 259MW by 2020 from the current 1 620MW, when projects such as the standard gauge railway start operating fully.

Government estimates, on the other hand, project peak demand will jump threefold to 4 755 megawatts in the three-year period. This is twice as much as the consultant’s estimates.

On top of this, Kenya’s problem isn’t that it needs more energy. Rather it needs to address distribution issues.

Any project involving the generation of more power needs to pay equal attention to Kenya’s grid and distribution system which currently can’t handle additional power. This includes corresponding efforts at regular, systematic maintenance work. Without these, any extra power generated from renewable and other energy sources will remain costly and wasted.

Yet another note of caution is in order. Demand from Kenya’s domestic consumers remains low even though a total of 5.8 -million customers now have connections to power – a five-fold increase in the past seven years.

Why is this the case?

Neither a lack of connectivity nor an unreliable supply is to blame for the low consumption of electricity by the vast majority of Kenyan consumers. Nor is it because of reportedly relatively high electricity tariffs.

Rather, it is simply because the majority of Kenyans still have low income levels. Many Kenyans simply cannot afford the luxury of modern appliances for cooking, heating or refrigerating.

This simple fact has neither been figured into government prognostications nor donor-driven last-mile connectivity scenarios.

[SIZE=5]Grappling with reality[/SIZE]
Over two years ago, after Kenya signed an MOU with China to explore building a nuclear power plant, I argued that sober analysis was required prior to walking further down that path. The situation remains the same today.

This is not a question of whether or not Kenya would be a responsible nuclear power producer. Indeed, all indications are that national nuclear electricity board (KNEB) and other relevant government agencies have acted scrupulously and responsibly.

Nevertheless, both the board as well as the international nuclear agency, the IAEA, should honestly conclude – and then publicly announce – that Kenya does not have a need for nuclear power.

Adding extremely expensive nuclear power to Kenya’s energy mix along with power from other inadvisable projectssuch as the Lamu coal power plant is arguably inexcusable as well as profligate. Lamu is expected to produce 5 000MW of power within a period of three years.

As such, Kenya needs to work overtime to set a power generation agenda that identifies real versus perceived needs. The country’s electricity agenda must not be driven by estimated consumption figures that fail to correspond to the true energy needs. In the words of a former Kenyan energy official,

It does not take much effort to notice the gap between what is on paper and the economic reality.

Brendon J. Cannon, Assistant Professor of International Security, Department of Humanities and Social Science, Khalifa University

I think the article raises a lot of valid points. We are not ready for nuclear power. We still have a lot of capacity to exploit in geothermal power before we can turn to nuclear power. On household consumption, we are rapidly approaching the off take point for a lot of electronic goods such as refrigerators and washing machines. This starts at 2000 usd per capita, a level we will achieve in 2019 - 2020. For tv it starts at 1000 usd and just 500 for Radio.

Two misleading things in that article.

  1. Lamu coal power plant is only 1000MW. 5000MW is it future maximum capacity if needed and expanded gradually over the years. So far its a non starter as they grapple with local, county, activism and litigation.

  2. Nuclear power is the cheapest power in the world and reliable. Its the backbone of usa/eu industry power needs. How that is in reverse in Africa tells you a lot about targetted misinformation. The nuclear plants in Africa will not be built by the country treasuries but the investors in the industry notably China, Japan, S.Korea, Russia and France. China is even building nuclear plants in UK and its been praised as revolutionary by industry players there. However being built here is somehow wrong.

The west is not happy with a industrialized Africa. Once we achieve that we will not be begging them for aid and start shifting focus from exporting raw materials to them and instead process them here. For Africa to industrialize we need cheap constant and reliable base power. These are nuclear, hydro, geothermal and coal. They cost between 3-8 cents. Wind and solar aren’t base power since they are unreliable and expensive I.e 8-15 cents. For a nation to industrialize it needs at least 30000MW of power for industry, homes and its cities. Kenya alone has an impressive 60% national power connectivity. Kenya with our 2400MW has a long way to go. You don’t just wake up one night or decade and expect industrialization to occur. You plan a generation ahead. In vision 2030 Kenya plans a power mix matrix of Hydro, Geothermal, Nuclear and clean coal. Power generation is a highly skilled project. KenGen, GDC and Nuclear power board of Kenya are investing now on local staff training and experience to build our own plants in conjunction with leading global players from China, Japan and EU. Our nuclear projects are taking a broad consultative and laid down procedure set by the global international nuclear energy agency IAEI . It starts with equipping the board with the right manpower, infield training, putting the right structures to supervise the industry and the set out global inspections needed to make the industry safe and effective. That is where Kenya is now. We have formed all the necessary bodies and structures as demanded. We have signed MOU’s with France, South Korea, China and Russia on the same. They have so far taken over 500 Kenyans for training on the same so that when they return they will administer the industry. The board is following the step by step procedures set in starting a safe, transparent and effective civilian nuclear energy program. Once we follow up the procedures we will be vetted and approved to start the process for tendering the plant. We will pick a global player to led the process. The player must be a reputed player in the industry. They will set the parameters of the plant to meet the safety requirements, design, materials and inspections needed. Once all that policy is done, tender will be issued and bidders can take part. Nuclear power plants are expensive to build. A plant of between 100-500-1000MW can cost up to $10 billion and therefore it will be on a PPP project. GoK contribution is just to provide land and security. The investor will foot the bill. Modern nuclear energy plants can now withstand sabotage, global nature events, attacks and accident. It has several parallel and overlapping safety nets and shutdowns based on the few bad accidents. Once completed the plant will be the most reliable power at +90% constant output beating our Geothermal output of +80%. Its also the cheapest power at 3 cents. usa and europe modern industrialization is dependent on Nuclear power first then coal but ironically they lecture us for trying to catch up to them and Asia. Expensive, unrealible wind and solar is promoted to us so that we take up expensive loans to build them but make sure the expensive power keeps our small industries at bay. Kenya industrial plan is to build a Special Economic Zone in all our 47 counties. They are the key to ending unemployment, enhance economic growth and make our local manufacturing global. They will need loads of power to be realized. Our approach is step by step. Build the infrastructure. Ports, rail, roads, power plants, national high power transmission lines under Ketraco linking all 47 counties, fibre, water, security and SEZ land across the country. China is a big client for our SEZ’s. China Silk road initiative is to transfer 100 million jobs from China to Africa. China has industrialize through its own SEZ. The unexpected reality of that is their grand SEZ industrial cities have led to labour wages increases as their workforce become more specialized and experienced. A widening gap at their labour market is increasing, incredibly considering its 1 billion strong population. More lower class citizens are joining the middle class faster than they are being replaced at the factories. Therefore more Chinese firms are opening manufacturing plants across Asia to tap onto their labour. In Asia that’s 10 million jobs a year transfered from mainland China. They are more than willing to take us joint Kenya/China SEZ projects here. We just need to get the infrastructure right.

There’s a line being done from Ethiopia to Kenya. I saw some newly constructed pylons around Marsabit earlier in the year.
Once the Ethiopian and Turkana Wind come online, we’ll be good to go and might not need nuclear in the foreseeable future. Kenya Power should work on the ageing distribution network and substations to improve quality of service.



Hats off mkubwa

Overall, I think the article raises valid points. One I strongly agree with is the challenge in power distribution. Progress has undoubtedly been made in this area, but there is room for improvement. We are not just talking about remote parts of the country, but also urban slums where illegal power connections are being done by cartels, denying the people safe electricity and Kenya Power a lot of revenue(60% of people in Nairobi live in slums)

However, on the whole, I think China is a better development partner than the West. China is more candid about its intentions (resources in exchange for infrastructure.) The West on the other hand uses human rights and democracy to control African governments, ensuring it favours leaders who can’t push a pro-Africa agenda. The reality is that the West, and especially the U.S., cares little about these things. If it did, Saudi, whose human rights record rivals a medieval empire, would not be its foremost ally in the Middle East.