Fake Unreliable Polls Dominate And Betray Yesterday's Elections Just Like In 2016.

Election Night turned out to be a nightmare for America’s pollsters.

For the second straight presidential election, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump’s share of the vote and whiffed badly on some key Senate races in battleground states.


Leading up to the vote, polls strongly pointed to a cresting “blue wave” in which Joe Biden would win the presidency, Democrats would expand their majority in the House and the party would seize control of the now Republican-led Senate.

Biden seems to have the inside edge on winning the White House, if by a much smaller margin than polls indicated. Democrats are also poised to lose a handful of seats in the House while the Senate appears increasingly out of reach.

The misfire has spawned a new round of criticism of the polling industry and raised fresh questions about whether polls can be trusted. Democrats were particularly upset by the inaccuracy of the surveys.


Let’s start with the national surveys. The RealClearPolitics average, which aggregates results from leading pollsters, indicated that Biden would win nationally by a margin of 51.2% to 44%. The closely followed FiveThirtyEight website similarly showed Biden on track to receive 51.8% of the vote to just 43.4% for Trump.

At last count, Biden held an edge of 50% to 48%, though it’s likely his lead will widen as all the votes from California, the U.S.’s most populous state, are tabulated.


What happened? Polls appear to have undercounted voters who lack college degrees for the second election in a row.

Conservatives contended that scores of Republican voters were either missed by pollsters or were unwilling to reveal their true preferences because of the perceived stigma of voting for Trump. According to that theory, these so-called shy voters flocked heavily to the president, offsetting a large increase in Democratic turnout and helping to keep some Senate seats in Republican hands.


Trump also appeared to make inroads among some Hispanic voters and even African Americans, according to exit polling from Edison Research.

Biden was forecast to win in Wisconsin by almost 7 points, with one ABC poll putting his lead at a whopping 17 points. Instead, Biden looks like he’ll scrape out a victory there by less than 1 percent.


Pollsters also missed badly on a handful of critical Senate races.

Republican Lindsey Graham was shown to have a small lead over Democratic rival Jaime Harrison — he won by double digits.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, for her part, did not lead in any one of the 15 polls conducted in the state since February. She won a convincing victory by almost 9 points based on the latest numbers.

The failure of pollsters to capture the full scope of what turned out to be a very close election is likely to leave voters and political prognosticators even more skeptical of trusting them in the future.

[SIZE=7]Why the polls were wrong about Trump (again)[/SIZE]
[I]Yahoo News’ Andrew Romano reports:[/I]

In light of this year’s historic turnout on both sides, that would equal a gap of just 3 to 5 percentage points. In other words, the national polls may have missed this year by about twice as much as in 2016, if the estimates hold.

Yahoo News was among the media organizations whose national numbers likely overstated Biden’s advantage. We partnered with YouGov early this cycle and asked it to conduct regular national opinion surveys about politics, coronavirus and the news of the week on our behalf. In those polls, the smallest lead YouGov ever found for Biden was 5 points. YouGov’s final Yahoo News survey showed Biden leading Trump 53 percent to 43 percent.

At the time, we wrote that a 10-point Biden victory “is hardly assured. But given the size and stability of Biden’s national lead, the scope of his competitiveness in key states and the staggering number of Americans who have already voted … the president will secure a second term only if polls are underestimating his support by far more than in 2016, when they missed by about 1 point nationally and about 4 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.”

That turned out to be exactly what happened on Election Day — aside from the part about Trump securing a second term, for which he faces an uphill battle in the Electoral College. As a side effect, Democrats are also coming up short in more Senate and House races than expected.

Regardless of who wins the White House, talk will turn in the days ahead to why 2020’s polling was even more wrong than 2016’s — and whether Americans can ever trust political opinion research again.

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