http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=69498&tmx=1500882568
JaKuon just jumped outta the frying pan right into the fire.
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Acting Interior CS Fred Matiang’i yesterday told NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga he cannot be intimated while performing his duties.
hawa journalists, do they proofread their work?
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if we talk of numbers and scenario they surely dont lie hear is my take
Jubilee Strongholds with an increase of +5% voter turnout of 2013 is projected as follows:
1.Kiambu County (96%)1,133,683
2.Nyeri County (98%)447,810
3.Uasin Gishu County (86%)387,047
4.Kericho County (91%)341,857
5.Kirinyaga County (91%)318,350
6.Nandi County (90%)311,406
7.Nyandarua County (94%)315,495
8.Laikipia County (90%)221,838
9. Egeiyo Marakwet (92%)166,210
10. Murang’a County (94%)551,898
11.Baringo County (91%)211,627
Total projected votes: 4,407,221
NASA Strongholds with an increase of +3% voter turnout of 2013 is projected as follows:
1.Kakamega County (84%)797,679
2.Machakos County (84%)521,013
3.Mombasa County (66.62%)386,544
4.Bungoma County (86%)498,266
5.Kisumu County (90%)485,289
6.Homa Bay County (94%)448,262
7.Kitui County (85%)404,560
8.Siaya County (92%)421,316
9.Makueni County (85%)359,813
10.Migori County (92%)357,542
11.Busia County (88%)308,922
12.Vihiga County (83%)226,099
Total projected votes: 5,572,847
Up for grabs (50%-50%) Counties with an increase of +3% voter turnout compared to 2013 election is projected as follows:
1.Nairobi County (82%)1,845,699
2.Kajiado County (87%)357,737
3.Garissa County (80%)130,680
4.Wajir County (85%)138,466
5.Marsabit County (86%)121,868
6.Tana River County (81%)95,844
7.Samburu County (88%)72,852
8.Isiolo County (87%)65,544
Total projected up for grabs votes: 2,828,690
Thus:
Jubilee: 1,414,345
NASA: 1,414,345
Battle Ground Counties (80%- 20%) in favour of Jubilee with an increase of +4% voter turnout compared to 2013 elections is projected as follows:
1.Nakuru County (89%)845,160
2.Meru County (88%)618,182
3.Narok County (90%)307,557
4.Bomet County (84%)200,810
5.Embu County (88%)272,330
6.Tharaka Nithi County (89%)189,707
8.West Pokot County (90%)162,208
9.Mandera County (84%)147,539
10.Lamu County (84%)58,611
Total projected votes: 2,891,104.
Thus
Jubilee (80%) 2,312,883
NASA (20%) 578,221
Battle Ground (70%-30%) Counties in favour of NASA with an increase of +2% of 2013 voter turnout is projected as follows
- Kisii County (84%) 459,127
2.Kilifi County (65%) 330,244
3.Trans Nzoia County (82%) 278,490
4.Kwale County (72%) 202,349
6.Nyamira County (84%) 234,009
7.Turkana County (76%) 145,490 - Taita Taveta County (81%) 126,129
Total projected votes: 1,775,838
Thus:
NASA (70%) 1,243,086
Jubilee (30%) 532,751
Breakdown
Jubilee
1Stronghold Counties (85% and above): 4,407,221
62.Up for grabs Counties (50-50%): 1,414,345
3.(80%-20%) in Jubilee’s favour; 2,312,883 - (70%-30%)in NASAs favour; 532,751
Grand projected votes (4,407,221+1,41
4,345+2,312,883+532,751) 8,667,200
NASA
1)Strongholds (85% and above) Counties; 5,572,847
2)Up for grabs (50%-50%)Counties; 1,414,345
- (70%-30%) Counties in favour of NASA; 1,243,086
- (80%-20%) Counties in favour of Jubilee; 578,221
Grand projected total (5572847+141434
5+867331+1243086) 8,808,499
Total votes projected: (8,667,200 + 8,808,499) 17,475,699
Deduct 5% of grand projected votes from each side to take care of spoilt votes and other candidates
Jubilee: 433,360
NASA: 440,425
Total: 873,785
Final projected votes.
1)Jubilee (8,667,200-433,360) 8,233,840= 47.6
2)NASA (8,808,499-440,425) 8,468,074 = 52.4
Grand total: 8,233,840+8,468,074
16,691,914
Conclusion: To be declared a presidential winner, a candidate needs to garner at least 50+1 of the total valid votes
Do you wonder why Baaba was against the appointment of Matiang’i as an acting internal security cs? Now you know.
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Any analysis listing Meru, Bomet, Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Mandera as battlegrounds is dismissed right away.
Classify them accordingly as Jubilee strongholds and come back with another calculation.
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Its the work of a sub editor to corect such before publication.
Those counties are swing leaning towards Jubilee i.e 80% Jubilee 20% NASA. For swing counties that lean toward NASA we assume a modest figure of 70% NASA 30% Jubilee
80% and above is the definition of a stronghold.
Otherwise if you consider them ‘swing counties’, you should also add Machakos, Mombasa, Makueni and Kitui, because Uhuru will easily get 20% and above here.
Mombasa in particular, Uhuru will not get anything below 30%.
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This swing counties are based on 2013 pattern. And to give Jubilee more vantage point, their strongholds turnout is +5% (impossible practicaly eg Kiambu is at 96% and nyeri at 98%) Even if you give uhuru the whole of coast province at 100% he cannot crossover the 50%+1
I doubt most of these online articles go through an editor.
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I think kuna watu wanalala kazini. The same online article used by the online team is also used by the newspaper team, all this after subbing has been done.
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Final projected votes.
1)Jubilee (8,667,200-433,360) 8,233,840= 47.6
2)NASA (8,808,499-440,425) 8,468,074 = 52.4
Grand total: 8,233,840+8,468,074
16,691,914
Conclusion: To be declared a presidential winner, a candidate needs to garner at least 50+1 of the total valid votes
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Hii hesabu yako inakaa a bit accurate brathe. However, judging from a neutral point of view, if you correct a few errors here and there from your wrooong calculations and analysis, Jubilee is more likely to win than NASA. The most correct thing is that there definitely will be no run off. Mwenye anashindwa anaenda nyumbani round one! My take!
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we here you sir:confused:
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The easiest and most straightforward way if you are using 2013 figures is to add Raila Mudavadi’s votes.
Uhuru’s strongholds of Central and Kalenjin are still intact. Even in Bomet, Isaac may win but I doubt Raila will do anything above 25%.
Uhuru will perform better in certain parts of coast and lower eastern. In short, unless you are saying Uhuru has lost massive support from 2013 (no proof), we are headed for the same result.
All polls point to this with the exception of the odd one - Infotrak.
I’m sure even Ambitho would find it difficult to explain how Uhuru lost 5% in a matter of 2 weeks from their own numbers.
Hii hesabu yako inakaa a bit accurate brathe. However, judging from a neutral point of view, if you correct a few errors here and there from your wrooong calculations and analysis, Jubilee is more likely to win than NASA. The most correct thing is that there definitely will be no run off. Mwenye anashindwa anaenda nyumbani round one! My take!
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Its always good to disagree with Facts not emotions
I can authoritatively confirm that Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu is a Jubilee strong hold. 98.9%. Anything else ni porojo.
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Hagwes na hagwes.
Hehe. People like a national ‘hero’.
Appear on TV hanging out with big guys and your support at home increases.
But the only votes he will take to the Naswa table are his and his wife’s.
you cannot give a candidate 100% of the votes even in his stronghold. Therefore, hii hesabu ni hogwash
I’ve also noticed quite a number of grammatical errors in a number of these articles… I’d guess they don’t give the same kind of editorial attention to online posts as they do to printed ones.
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