As the Nile conflict enters a new phase, it’s good to ask whether we can avoid being sucked into it or get caught in the fallout from the key actors. Egypt has been supplying weapons to Somalia in a bid to checkmate them by surrounding Addis with enemies. This action unfortunately has unforeseen consequences because in reality, for a weakened government, the Pharaohs might as well be delivering the weapons directly to the Islamists. Just the other day a major attack with scanty details occurred and it raises such concerns .
For Kenya and the long war against Al Shabab, this might undo years of effort and once again put Kenyan citizens, police and military at risk. With Kenya in a political storm either as a distraction or lapse in security, malicious actors might get involved.
The intelligence, media and diaspora community should keep watch before the nightmare unfolds. But that’s not enough, it is wise to open back-channel talks with Cairo to reign in the arms being flooded into Somalia.
Generally, issues of regional security in Africa are decided in western capitals.
E.g the outcome of all this you desribe as a potential security threat will eventually be decided in the best interests of western governments and multinationals.
Hii ni defeatist mentality sasa tukae fwaaah juu Omusungu will decide. Hapa we should show strength or at least we puff up like Chimpanzees to intimidate.
What leverage do we have to open talks with Egypt and tell them to stop arming the Somalis?
Why would they listen to us at all and what would we do if they totally ignored our concerns?
Has Kenya ever even dared to comment on the issue of the Nile and GERD? We also cannot harvest water from the river basin despite being one of the Nile riparian states alongside TZ, Burundi, UG, and others.
Historically Kenya has always survived these regional squabbles by staying relatively neutral. Or leaning towards the stronger side. Who would that be in this scenario?
If I hated myself and blacks this much, naeza tu kunywa sumu nife because there’s no point in living. I mean, why play a losing game ?
Atleast @Abba mentioned about coalitions which can work. During the Baba shenanigans za AU seat, hao wazee wangeogea stori kama hizo as a side agenda. I know Museveni is vocal about the issue, TZ can tow the line …
Perfect example is Sondu Miriu not being dammed/having a reservoir. As a JaNyakach it is annoying seeing water flow down past Odino freely into the lake na kwetu imekauka AF.
Kenya iingilie kati, as a nation bordering Zoomalia, cant have Egyptians arming our stupid neighbours
Kenya doesn’t care much about the issue of water. Murima and Rift Valley basins have enough precipitation. As long as Wajaka hawakatazwi fishing and marine activities in Lake Victoria we can avoid the issue. The problem now comes when they start arming Somalia and indirectly Al Kebab, hapa it’s only a matter of time tukue involved whether we want or not.
You need to find the video of President Museveni explaining how in 2011 when the western powers decided to go for Gadaffi in Libya. Museveni said 6 African heads of state were on a plane in the air headed to libya to try and stop the war. They got a call from washington telling them to GO BACK and they had no option but to go back to their shithole countries.
Wwe ni kama common sense imekataa. The whole point of this conflict is pressure not war. If it were, Egyptians na venye wanapenda vita wangetafuta excuse.
The Ethiopians have leverage because what’s to stop them from a systematic government deforestation of the entire basin. Just some petrol and goons, then afterwards hasoras wapewe mashamba huko. Less water for Egypt and Ethiopian dams too. Power is all about leverage.
There’s a river in the India-Pakistan dispute and the narrative is the same. The one in the high ground normally has the advatange and also a disadvantage because large tracts of land have to be left as forests to sustain the ecosystem.
The is no need to tamper with blue Nile basin it’s economically too important for Ethiopia however zoomalia’s main water basins also originate from the Ethiopian highlands if something was to happen to those rivers Juba and shebele I.e massive irrigation diversions it would kill the only water source that they have that will quickly plunge somalia into a massive famine, somalia is also playing with fire here alshabaab’s end goal is to take over power in Mogadishu and turn the country into an Islamic caliphate.