Embakassi East And The Shifting Political Landscape

The Embakassi East seat was hotly contested. The recount showed that Babu won by a paltry 4K votes (46K against 42K)

Now remember that the showdown was basically NASA vs JUBILEE. Pro-nasa tribes were united behind one Babu and saw him clench the seat. Now 4K votes is not implicit of Babu’s dominance, if anything it shows how frail his hold of Embakassi East is.

So everyone who thinks Babu is suprapopular, the evidence begs to differ. 4K is easily recoverable.

Now let us look at the political dynamics at play (should the appeal fail to stop a by-election)

Remember Babu was voted in by NASA. In NASA, we have the KAMBA, LUHYA, and LUO vote. These are the three most important NASA votes in Embakassi East. Currently, ODM has publicly criticized the other components of NASA. The Kambas have seen Kalonzo insulted by JOHO and Sifuna. And do not lie to yourself, Kambas voted for NASA because Kalonzo is in NASA, not because of RAO.

The luhyas have also seen Weta and MaDvD lose face in NASA. Even Khalwale came out to defend the duo when criticized for not attending RAOs swearing in. Khalwale is as pro-baba aa they come but he showed where his true allegiances lie…with the tribe.

Back to Emba East.

The Luhyas are not as motivated as they were during the 8/8 elections. The agenda was to back ODM and have ODM back a luhya for DP come 2022. ODM has said they are ready to face 2022 alone, in short the Luhyas have no more reason to be NASA damu.

The KAMBAs are on the same train. They feel belittled. NASA is practically non-existent. The only motivated votes behind BABU are the LUO votes.

For Mureithi, his support base is still intact. The KIUKs want to teach BaBU A LESSON for insulting Uhunye.

In the end the face-off will be KIUKS vs LUOs as the Kambas and Luhyas will not be as motivated to back an ODM candidate.

So with an advantage of 4K votes and the loss of a sizeable chunk in his two main support bases. Things are not looking good for BABU.

Say what you will but BABUs only hope is to win it in the courtrooms. The political landscape has shifted to his disadvantage.

Good analysis. Wait the apologists will tell you how tialala make all this wrong.

And within hours, the analysts have come out. Kama si kwa TV ama redio, ni hapa kwenye intaneti.

1, quote your source
2, it’s clinch. Clench means something else.

But I agree he will be soundly defeated.

Poor analysis. the kambas have condemned Kalonzos water melon tendancy, luhyas are behind baba. that’s why muda and weta are falling over themselves to explain why they did not appear in the swearing in. alarge population of kisii also live there. also firmly behind babu. the seat is his to loose.

This is my analysis, an obvious one if you ask me. If you are so keen on correcting typos, you missed quite a few.

One thing about our opposition that I like is consistency in making bad decisions all the time. odm is like a bunch of wild kids taking the chest thumping, threats, bravado and fights at every turn. They need to be attacking someone or some institution to be relevant. Its like kids pouring kerosine all over the house and they proceed to start playing with match sticks. sifuna is hardly a day into sg position and he is already attacking watermelon, wiper, anc and ford kenya. mbadi is busy in parliament following all opposition mps in parliament to see if they are talking to Jubilee MP’s. If they are talking, meeting or friendly then he rans to RAT with muchene. Childish and immature. I’m enjoying every minute.:smiley:

The old Bondo retiree will once more find a reason to venture out.
Of late he’s been forced to keep a low profile by unfavorable political circumstances.

Kambas and luhyas are going to vote for mureithi

Add to that his stupid remarks since August till now. Some will just shy away…
Again, just an opinion.

You miss the point. The illusion of unity that saw Kambas and Lihyas brave the cold is gone. I am not saying that Kaos and Luhyas support the non-attendance. What I am saying is that they are still behind their tribal leaders. The illusion of unity is gone and with it a good chunk of babus votes.

I failed to mention Kisiis with good reason. KISIIS ARE DIVIDED BETWEEN NASA AND JUBILEE. Look at their voting patterns last elections

Luhyas we are voting for Babu . all babu has to do is campaign with Kalonzo, Ngilu , Madvd , Weta and he has the luhya kamba vote . muone nimeweka Ngilu hapo vile Waititu amekuwa akiongea mbaya juu ya wakamba , hapo kura ita come through mara hiyo . but ukweli ni kuwa court of appeal will quash the judgment hakuna elekshen

You misrepresent the power of motivation. Kambas and Luhyas will not be as motivated as they were when they voted Babu in. Jubilee guys are highly motivated to punish Babu. Jubilee guys are further motivated by the momentum developed by consecutive wins i.e Uhuru wins, Raila swearing is avoided by key Nasa members, infighting in Nasa, babu loses petition etc. The same kill the morale of Nasa voters.

Sijafuata hiyo kesi poa but Babu kulipishwa 5 m inamaanisha yeye alicommit election offenses. Kama alifanya maufala alikuwa nazo uon, bado appeal court inaeza mtema

So there will be no erosion of the 4K margin? Or the margin will increase?

Once again, slow down and relax. Whatever the argument and whom doesn’t matter. “Some people” will remember your words once the results are announced. RAT and opposition are facing a decline of diminish return. They know they are done and so do their supporters as much as they argue against.

Has it listened to Cyprian Awiti’s case, it might take long

I’m sure you’re aware of the existence of straws.
Kuwa mpole… allow these guys to clutch them.

Wajiulize why RAT is taking long naps away from limelight. Some people wanaona 2022 is so far, they would wish it was next year.

people forget babu had mobilized hordes of comrades to register in the constituency some of whom have since graduated and scattered to the four directions of the wind…

Brilliant analysis!!

What gets me is how people think that being loud is being dominant. Babu struggled and won by a very small margin when the NASA machinery was at its strongest. Now NASA is at its weakest, the result is rather obvious.