We will be headed to the ballots in exactly 2 weeks from today. The 8/8 elections is a rematch between Uhuru and Raila. There are a few changes that have occurred over the past 4 years that could tilt the results either way. Some include;
i) ICC cases are off the table
ii) Jubilee have government resources to campaign using goodies
iii) Jubilee have some development and good communication team to highlight their achievements
iv) Opposition is “united” since Mudavadi is now in NASA with his about 400k.
v) Jubilee has failed to deliver some promises
vi) Both sides have eroded a few strongholds of the opponents. Jubilee have raided western, coast, and Kisii nyanza. NASA have raided upper eastern and south rift.
Given the 2013 numbers, Uhuru got 6,173,433 while Raila got 5,340,546, the difference would almost be the same (832,887). Opinion polls also point to a tight race.
This year’s registered voters are 19,687,563. In 2013, there was 85% voter turnout. This figure could be inflated given that most stations used manual voter identification.
So, I presume this year’s turnout will be almost the same, probably anywhere between 80% to 88%.
There are about 40k polling stations spread across the country. Each has about 500 voters
As it stands, IEBC can use manual voter identification if electronic system fails, especially to individuals with rough hands.
Let us assume that each camp has 15k polling stations in the strongholds. 395 out of 500 voters turn out to vote. The stronghold IEBC staffs fill up the ballot boxes with 80 “ghost” voters who are in the register but failed to turn up. So the official turn out reads about 475 out of the 500 registered voters. It is easy to claim the 80 manually identified could not be electronically identified.
80 multiply by 15, 000 polling stations is 1,200,000/-. Just the number required to win this election.
So, the cleverest rigging camp will carry the day on 8/8.