By Kipkalya Kones
What is usually referred to as the “deep state” is not really a group of people sitting in a dark place pulling national strings. Instead, it narrows down to the control of three key elements of state; money, guns and people. The state is in fact sustained and run by just those three elements. The guys who control the money, the folks who control the instruments of state violence and the people who have the people, make up the deep state.
At election time, two of those often gang up to defeat the third, but soon after the elections, they go looking for the defeated element, without which stability and national security is at risk. Once you understand this, you will know why expecting @RailaOdinga to help you bring down a government is a vain endeavour. In fact, the Handshake, the national accord government and all the rapprochment with fraudulent governments are merely Raila’s realisation that one of the three cannot manage the state alone without the other two.
When Moi took power, he realised that the money driving the economy belonged to the Kikuyu Nation and the guns were all in the Kamba Nation. The third element, the people, had left Kanu with Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. Moi set about accelerating the switching of the guns to the Kalenjin Nation, as well as a bit of the money. The latter he didn’t do quite well, because the national economy dwells on corporate-style industrial money, the Kikuyu way, while the Kalenjin system was moving it in sacks to their villages. When he suffered a coup attempt in 1982, Moi decided to keep the Kenyatta Money Complex close while forgetting the rest of Kikuyus, replaced the Kamba Military Complex with a Kalenjin one and kept vigil awaiting the Odinga People Machine to return home. By the time he left, Moi had even established a large reservoir of guns in private hands, within the North Rift, which subsequent owners of the Gun Complex restock, as governments pretend to be fighting the “bandits”. This reservoir is meant to act as a counter to any official loss of power.
It is possible that the Gen Z, on behalf of the people, can overthrow the government. But a day after, they will discover that the guns and the money needed to drive the economy and protect the state belong to people of a different generation, who can’t be overthrown because their faces are unknown and they hold no official titles. This is the part Raila is alive to, but Gen Z are not. Raila has attempted to overthrow a government before. Using guns. It was a transitory period between the Kamba Gun Complex and Kalenjin one, so the timing was perfect. But the guns fell short. And the money had other ideas. After this, Moi had the option to hang Raila. But Moi wasn’t a fool. He knew that where Kalenjins could own guns and the Kikuyu the money, he needed a people machine, and the Odingas were the quintessential people’s people. In fact, we have often been told that as Raila escaped the rough lake into Uganda disguised as a Legio Maria (or Catholic) priest, a military detachment led by one Major Diffu had him under surveillance, ready to sink the boat, but Moi gave the order to let Raila go. This also explains why past assassinations have targeted supposedly popular politicians like Tom Mboya and JM Kariuki, but both Jaramogi and Raila have lived full lives. The guns and the money cannot risk having the people disintegrate away from a centrally recognised leader.
…Those asking Raila not to dialogue with Ruto need to understand this equation. Raila has the people. The Kikuyu have the money. But since they have been in power 20 years, they have also stocked enough of the guns. If Ruto falls, power returns to Central Kenya and will never leave again. But that is not even the issue. The bigger problem is, when you demand that Raila lets Ruto fall, what do YOU have in place to replace Ruto? What system do you have in mind? Somalia? Zaire after Mobutu? Sudan after Bashir? Would Raila Amolo Odinga, at nearly 80 years, help you with that? Let me give you the scenarios so you understand;
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Raila “lets” Ruto fall and he indeed does. The military takes over, suspends the constitution and plans fresh elections in five years. But tensions in the military between Kikuyus and Kalenjins ends up in civil war and the guns they have both been piling come out in full force.
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Raila accepts Ruto’s offer and appoints some technocrats in government who stabilise the government and economy, while also reforming the IEBC, then helps defeat Ruto in 2027.
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Raila rejects Ruto’s offer but Ruto doesn’t fall anyway. Instead, he proceeds to create a police state, survives the term, steals 2027 and stays ten years…possibly even removing term limits. Ruto is now where Moi was in 1982. Seething with rage, humiliated and down. If he survives on his own, he is coming back with a dangerous dictatorship.
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Raila accepts Ruto’s offer then Gen Z chase both of them out of town. What next?
We are at a crossroads, far from simple sloganeering. We all want Ruto gone. But can we honestly state what we want in place the day after he is gone?
