Debunking Corona Virus numbers, how we are all wrong.

Education
1

So today, was chatting with a friend who is a medic in Sierra Leone (Kenyan BTW) and he just come up with a very new angle about corona Virus numbers.

I was also not aware about this angle but it seems and looks absolutely correct way to look at it.

Now,
961,000 is the number of all persons who have been infected ever since. In it there are recovered cases, death numbers and ongoing cases.

So he says, the way we look at mortality rate as a whole is wrong 100%.

Many people argue the mortality rate is 2%,3%, etc but THAT IS NOT CORRECT.

Because we are pegging the death rate to all infections numbers which isn’t correct.

THAT we should peg the death rate towards CLOSED CASES. In that out the 961,000 people, there are people are still infected and we don’t know their outcomes.

Please understand it clearly, in Kenya we have had

110 cases.
4 recovery.
3 deaths.

Meaning 7 closed cases. The remaining 103 active cases which NOBODY KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN

So his argument is,

Mortality rate should be calculated against cases which have finalised either through death or recovery. The rest active cases WILL ALSO HAVE EITHER OF TWO OPTIONS later.

It got me scared, as its true out of the remaining 103 cases in Kenya part will survive or die.

He emphasised that is why you are seeing countries scampering around not knowing what to do.

He said covid-19, infects alot of people fast, kills slow and people recovery slowly.

In Kenya only 4 people have recovered and 3 died meaning average rate of 42%, (3 Deaths /7 total number of closed cases) as the rest 103 we don’t know their fate.

True to it checking worldmeters website it has reporting in this way ever since…

World wide mortality rate is 19%.
Out of the 961,000 cases
203,000 have recovered
49,000 have died

Over 709, 000 are active case, which will fall in either recovery or death category.

What do you guys think about this??

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2

You are right.

3

Go read about case fatality rate and you will understand better.

4

Meaning watu wa kenya wanakufa na hii virus at a rate of 42 % while the world is at 19%.

5

You are full of bullshit ghassia takataka mafwi prophet of doom ushindwe Kwa jina LA yesu

6

Correct…

7

Relax bro. Ata mimi nimeshtuka sana. Didn’t think about it this way. What I saw on worldometers.info ndio confirmed its supposed to be like this.

8

@uwesmake come explain what case fatality rate is ju nmeona umelike msg hapo ju

9

Say it here tu chambue. We are learning

10

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11

before posting any of your friends analysis… facts to consider:

  1. Amurica is a continent by virtue of landmass and all that would call for a continent
  2. U just cant compare the two, lest alone 254

Tell us about things as citizens we should be doing over and above government directives!

12

Concentrate on what you know. And your friend ni meffi with his pseudo science. He is the only one in the whole world with that meffi calculations

13

You have wierd friends.
Since he lives in Sierra Leone chances are that he has partaken pangolin meat and he could also be infected. Kindly undergo self quarantine to take care of others

14

Hahahahaha I won’t try to talk to you. Wash your hands and isolate.

15

Go read how mortality and birth rates and other rates are calculated and then come back with your friend from Sierra Leone so that he can be caned and schooled by elders and then read CFR as advised then come back. We shall have a long talk

16

Explain this bro. Am waiting nikona pen na graphs [ATTACH=full]294879[/ATTACH]

17

You try to sound clever but wewe ni mmeru wa veve tu u don’t reason.

  1. Birth and mortality rate to WHAT??? Being born being alive? That’s not the rate we are looking for :D:D:D:D

Answer me this question…

Kenya has had 110 cases.

4 recovered

3 died

103 are still sick

Those 103 DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY WILL SURVIVE OR DIE?

Answer that question then I will show you how FOOLISH you are.

Am waiting usitoroke please.

18

Yaani @D… Mungai ukaamini iyo hesabu ya upuzi…if he is a doctor I pitty his patients, no wonder he is in siara whatever

19

I will ask you 1 simple question. How do you calculate infant mortality? If you answer me that maybe I will entertain your misguided notions
And it doesn’t take humongous efforts to find out how CFR is being calculated

So you want to tell us epidemiology is pseudo science

20

Stop being foolish bro. Wewe ni elder hapa. Stop it.

Come let’s argue it out.

Kenya has had 110 confirmed cases.

4 have recovered
3 have died

103 are still sick.

Tell me, out of those 103 how many are going to recover or die?? Ndio we find the death rate even before the cases are closed.

Use your brains. Bro.

This means what, from Worldometers.info… Ata wao don’t know what they are calculating.

Btw my friend is in UN he earns over 800k a month, we were with in NGO world. So don’t think otherwise.
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