Conventional Wisdom Gives Trump Re-Election Weird Chances..Sad!

What are Donald Trump’s chances for re-election in 2020?
If history is any guide, pretty good.

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In early 1994, Bill Clinton’s approval rating after two years in office hovered around a dismal 40 percent. The first midterm elections of the Clinton presidency were an utter disaster.
A new generation of younger, more conservative Republicans led by firebrand Newt Gingrich and his “Contract with America” gave Republicans a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. Republicans also picked up eight Senate seats in 1994 to take majority control of both houses of Congress.
It was no wonder that Republicans thought the 1996 presidential election would be a Republican shoo-in. But Republicans nominated 73-year-old Senate leader Bob Dole, a sober but otherwise uninspired Washington fixture.

By September of 1996, “comeback kid” Clinton had a Gallup approval rating of 60 percent. Dole was crushed in an Electoral College landslide.
Barack Obama was given a similarly dismal prognosis after the 2010 midterms when Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats. Republicans regained majority control of the House, though Democrats clung to a narrow majority in the Senate. At the time, Obama had an approval rating in the mid-40s.
Republicans once again figured Obama would be a one-term president. Yet they nominated a Dole-like candidate in the 2012 election. Republican nominee Mitt Romney had little appeal to Republicans’ conservative base and was easily caricatured by the left as an out-of-touch elite.
By late 2012, Obama’s approval rating was consistently at or above 50 percent, and he wound up easily beating Romney.

What is the significance of these rebound stories for Trump, who had a better first midterm result than either Clinton or Obama and similarly low approval ratings?

Read here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/01/17/trumps_re-election_chances_may_be_better_than_you_think_139193.html

[SIZE=7]From Other Opinions | Five reasons Trump may be a one-termer:[/SIZE]

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First, special counsel Robert S. Mueller III does his job methodically, secretly and effectively, wrapping up one witness after another. Despite the Trump onslaught, he retains the confidence of most Americans. The Pew Research Center reports, “A majority (55%) remains confident that special counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election. Confidence in Mueller has held steady over the course of the past year, and there remains more confidence in Mueller to conduct a fair investigation than in Trump to handle matters related to the inquiry appropriately.” By contrast, the same poll shows the public trust in Trump continues to drop. “A majority of the public (58%) says they trust what Trump says less than they trusted what previous presidents said while in office,” Pew Research Center finds. “Just 26% say they trust Trump more than previous presidents, while 14% say their level of trust in Trump’s rhetoric is about the same as for past presidents.”

Second, Trump’s play-to-the-base strategy was a blunder with enormous ramifications. Sure, about 30 percent of the electorate will believe whatever Trump says, no matter how absurd. The Trump cult however now stands isolated from everyone else. A base-only strategy with a blundering, offensive president — who did virtually nothing for the “forgotten man and woman” and who alienated college-educated voters (in part with his racism and rejection of reality), women and suburban voters — put the House in Democratic hands.

Third, in the midst of a scandal, most presidents can fall back on their role as commander in chief and architect of U.S. foreign policy to sustain their aura of power. Trump’s foreign policy, aside from the taint from his subservience to Russia, is characterized as chaotic, frightening and entirely ineffective. From his trade war that harms U.S. farmers, consumers and business, to his irresponsible plan to pull out from Syria, to his constant threats to NATO, to his foolish indulgence of North Korean tyrant Kim Jong Un, Trump’s foreign policy further saps his reputation an authority. If President Richard M. Nixon could rely on foreign policy achievements (e.g. China) to sustain him during the dark days of Watergate, Trump’s foreign policy increases the urgency of getting him out of office. (“Get rid of him before he does any more damage!” is a reasonable reaction to his destructive tendencies.)

Fourth, Trump’s narcissism, incompetence and rotten judgment have led him to force out any adviser with a modicum of common sense, experience and influence. There is no one to head off or help get him out of jams he gets into. There is no Jim Mattis to reassure allies and clean up Trump’s sloppy rhetoric; no Gary Cohn to fend off tariffs. Surrounded by yes-men, callow relatives and enablers, Trump’s bad days increase and achievements become scare. Again, Trump is his own worst enemy.

Finally, a primary challenge to Trump was once unthinkable. However strongly Republicans cling to Trump in the face of Democratic attacks and harsh media coverage, Republicans are increasingly open to a primary challenge. In the latest NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll, 43 percent of Republicans want a primary challenger, while only 46 percent do not. The second inauguration of the popular, anti-Trump Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has intensified interest in him running for president. If Hogan jumps in and starts moving in the polls, others may follow.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/opinions-five-reasons-trump-may-be-a-one-termer/ar-BBSuILb?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=edgsp