Since the onset of military aviation, defenses from aerial attacks were based on human senses of sight and sound. Radar was an early form of electronic warfare that was invented by Britain in the midst of the Luftwaffe air blitz by during the second world war. Primitive radar defenses provided early warning because one could spot and quantify enemy aircraft much farther away than human air sentries or spies could see or hear. Counter measures were basic. Either point and shoot anti air craft guns or fly a reception committee in the direction of the enemy. Radar in its infancy was so highly classified that the british explained the resounding success in downing planes of fellow Nazis by saying that their air sentries based along the coast of the English channel had super eyesight obtained from a carrot-rich diet.
With time this radar technology spread through out the world. Computer technology became very advanced and was integrated with radar and missile launchers to make air defense systems ADs that could be used by land based forces. The AD computer utilizes principles of physics (Newton’s Laws) to predict an enemy aerial vehicle’s trajectory and initiates and interception with an explosive projectile. With such advanced systems it is possible to establish air superiority which is also key to domination in ground-based combat. At this point dorobo is not sure whether kenya has a modern air defense system. We have never been under attack by another country’s airforce or missiles. For a few hours during the coup attempt in August 1982, the mutinous kenya airforce was able to shake the whole country’s security apparatus because no counter existed for its F5 jets. The rebels however lost because they were led by NCOs who were easily fooled by loyal KAF pilots who shielded the aircraft from aggressive operations. The thing unraveled quickly because on the ground they were no match for the kenya army infantry that later mobilized comfortably knowing no air attacks were forthcoming. Kenya has always been a stooge of the west and currently there is chance that AD systems may be locally in place to protect western installations but we don’t know if their courtesy extends to our own. But I digress. This is write-up is about the ongoing very technologically sophisticated conflict in Europe.
In the initial stages of the Ukraine war, both sides were initially matched due to similarities in training, equipment and military doctrines. But Russia used its numerical advantage and surprise to suppress Ukrainian ground based air defenses and establish a very short lived air superiority. This situation was quickly thwarted by Ukraine using NATO-supplied man portable air defenses and the Bayraktar. Shortly after germans (descendants of hitler) brought in very advanced ADs and Russian Migs and Sukois could operate safely only in Russia and Belorussia.
The winter campaign saw a sustained electronic warfare, drone and ballistic/cruise missile bombing attacks by the Russians that in addition to taking out civilian energy infrastructure managed to once again suppress Ukrainian air defense systems. The Russians briefly enjoyed a modicum of air superiority that helped in the eventual takeover of Artemovsk/Bakhmut and surrounding villages. The march to Kyiv or at least to secure borders of the newly seceded republics in the Donbas seemed possible within the year.
Recently, americans threw in the Patriot missile defense into the dangerously burgeoning Ukrainian war chest. A number of factors makes this weapon system very formidable. Its highly mobile components can be scattered over a wide geographical range measuring tens of kilometres making it difficult to track and take out. The system is integrated to air based surveillance systems principally supplied by AWACS that provide a 360 degree electronic map of the battlefield. Anything with any electronic signature moving on land, sea and air can have its coordinates relayed to the patriots. Then AI working in the patriot system makes its accuracy and speed beyond capabilities of Russian weapons. As such, previously invincible drone swarms and hypersonic missiles have been neutralized. Situation is so bad that there are reports of Russian Migs used to launch Kinzhals and electronic warfare helicopters that accompany them have been downed inside Russian territory in what appears as pre-emptive strikes by patriots or other conjoined ADs. This is an indicator that gloves have come off and NATO is sending a message that the core Putin threat of a Russian nuclear attack can be countered effectively.
Because killing a patriot is difficult, the Russians have once again lost air superiority. If Zelensky gets F16s from the nazi coalition, the Ukraine may take full control of the skies and the war could decisively shift in its direction. But before you come to this conclusion, Napoleon Bonaparte will tell that you that you can only underestimate them Ruskys at your own peril. They are resilient and very good at making innovative low cost counters. For a start, they have of late been focused on bleeding expensive patriot missiles using barrages of cheap wooden UAVs while probing for its weaknesses using sacrificial ballistic and cruise missiles. Russian are at the top of the electronic warfare game. They have previously neutered a number of “game-changing” NATO and Ukrainian weapons and we wait to see if they can too jam the patriots. Last March the Russian aerospace force physically downed an American spy drone (it unfortunately was soon replaced by another, larger and probably armed). It was reported that the Russian navy retrieved the carcass of the drone from the bottom of the Black Sea and geeks could be studying its controls maybe to understand the architecture of the fearsome NATO surveillance system that’s causing Putin much butt hurt. Taking out the high altitude spies including AWACs that are constantly patrolling in nearby NATO states while well within range of the war zone is a priority if Russia is to remain part of the apex of the multipolar world.
Russia has all along thought its strongest last line of defense is its nuclear arsenal and this has been thrown into doubt. It should begin to see military diplomacy as more effective. Most of its allies have shied away from the war because they operate in the western-controlled economic system. They very much fear NATO/EU sanctions and have mainly favoured neutrality. Iran that has weathered years of economic sanctions has shown that it is possible to support Russia and still have enough teargas for its bimbos pms-ing against headscarves. Asian giants China and India have done well to buy Russian gas and oil that Europeans boycotted at the start of the conflict hoping to bankrupt and mollify Russia. But it is difficult to rein in giants directly into the battle and the small guys may be better targets of military diplomacy. Russia should be working very hard to bring on board North Korea fully. This belligerent nuclear capable midget state nestling on Russia’s eastern border has the special ops, missile and electronic warfare capabilities lethal enough to shift the battlefield in the same manner as the Persian shaheeds. Support should not be just about bullets and signals. Are there some of the legendary Cuban medics on the ground? The PMC model seems to be a step ahead of slow Russian military hierarchy. Can Vietnamese open a Wagner recruiting centres in Hanoi? Can prigozhin stop raiding Russian prisons for cowardly rapists and murderers. Africans who lead doomed lives in their countries only need a good bowl of Slavic goulash and a plot of land in the steppes in exchange for fealty to the Russian cause, or nothing considering how the cccp supported the liberation of Africa from colonialism and western imperialism. recruit good quality mercenaries from martial races such as the nilo Saharans and cushites? Its disheartening to see negritos drowning in the mediteranean trying to attain slavery in the west while much of the cold mother Russia is sparse and unfarmed.
