Its been interesting watching this guy since he took power about 100 days ago. He has been busy both at home and abroad and talking big game too. Domestically, he has promised political reforms as well as economic changes too. Abroad, he is seeking to buy a port for his navy either in Kenya ,Somalia, Djibouti or Sudan;make peace with Eritrea,come to an agreement with Egypt over GERD and negotiate peace in S Sudan, all these are heavy lifts and should be best handled gradually and one by one. indeed his TPLF partners were already grumbling over pace of reforms. I thought him naive even, unable to comprehend the weight of matters at hand,then last week grenade attack happened.
The grand ayatollah of political chess Vladimir Putin has taught us to never let a good crisis go to waste, rather use the state of flux to gain more desirable environment. Abiy, a former head of intelligence understands this.
See, his leadership faces challenges both internally and externally. The TPLF managed to maintain power in Ethiopia despite being in the minority by playing off the larger Amharics and Oromos against one another and dominating security agencies. They then parlayed this into economic heft dominating the large state owned enterprises. The grenade attack is being blamed on opponents of reforms, expect Abiy to turn his guns on the Tigrays and purge them from key positions of power. This will put him in a more solid footing domestically.
Externally, the key threat comes from Egypt as a result of GERD dam. The Egyptians have finally come to terms with the dam being built but have been seeking a deal on ensuring availability of water by lengthening the filling period, (BTW they will start storing water this July rainy season) but the real threat is from Egypt army. Highly regarded at home and influential, the army has been pursuing an independent foreign policy that aims at putting teeth behind the politicians threats to attack the dam. The Egyptians have sought power projection capabilities by buying mistral helicopter carriers,frigates,bombers and bases in the red sea and Eritrea.
These are real threats and am sure Ethiopians were concerned. The new PM has sought to deal with this by seeking to breath new impetus in the negotiations with Egypt, this should give them pause,which is important because the window for a kinetic strike against the dam is rapidly closing. Once it starts impounding water,any attack will result in massive flooding downstream in Sudan and might even compromise lake Nasser. Should he use the negotiations as a delaying tactic he might just present the Egyptians with a fait accompli. I also believe the rapprochement with Eritrea is meant to remove the incentive for Asmara hosting hostiles such as Egypt while releasing political prisoners puts him in good books with the West.
Should he succeed in all this,he will be premier for a long time. its going to be an interesting time. Grab some popcorn.
He has made the most capital he could from his newness. He is getting rid of unnecessary problems so that he can focus on the real stubborn ones. The country will certainly reap dividends before the problems mutate. New faces enjoy the benefit of the doubt.
my good friend
From the beautiful flowery words you have used one might imagine that you’re describing a very successful and well organized nation state and not a shithole autocracy that is inches away from descending into civil strife of Biblical proportions. Citizens escaping every single minute in small boats, thousands locked up for no reason at all. You’ve seen Ethiopians escaping even here in Kenya hidden in lorries.
Ethiopia doesn’t need a political president what they want is a reform president. A very serious one, ama nchi ipotee.
Ethiopians are not really interested in bullshit dams they want change: political and economic. The economy is rubbish. Very high unemployment and I imagine, corruption just like in Kenya. Hii mambo ya kumuambia he’ll be “a premier for a long time to come” is non sense. Atakufa na nchi akicheza. This is not a game of chess ati about just winning, you are dealing with human beings here who have been oppressed for decades and not pawns on a chessboard. People who are about to explode.
And Putin is far from a grandmaster. Kiboko yake inakuja pole pole. Don’t be fooled by the fancy stadia. Last time he was sworn in chini ya maji. Walked from his desk to some ballroom to give the illusion of a very busy man while protesters were being hammered outside. Mpatie time ujionee.
Misery does indeed love company. Kaa hapo ukiji-convince kila mtu ni mwizi kama ulivyo.
I don’t need to imagine anymore, I just Googled a few articles and indeed there’s rampant corruption and oligarchy in Ethiopia. Extreme grand corruption and nepotism in Ethiopia. You don’t need to be a genius to see the picture. Hizi vitu hupelekana: Greed, wizi, katalia kiti, ua watu etcetera.
Entrenched cronysm.
Over 8000 Ethiopian refugees ran away to Kenya this year in march unajaribu kusema nini ingine? jana boat ilishikwa imejaa ethiopians niliona in passing hapo al jazeera. Early this month 46 Ethiopians drowned off the Yemen coast?
Or you think they are escaping happiness? Ethiopia is inches away from becoming another Somalia. Actually worse than Somalia if this young man fails. Unadhani de salegn alitoka juu ni kuzuri?
Leo kuna points umeanguka @Useless Spectator
PM Abiy was installed by the same Tigray’s so its not comprehensible that he needs to remove them to gain control. As a former spook boss he understands greatly the power play in Ethiopia. It took a long time of negotiations to get him as PM and part of it its him getting enough power to initiate these reforms. The second bit is that he has sufficient support from some running class high ups to count on. Not all Tigrays are a threat, they are a stronger faction supporting him and a minority that isn’t.
Egypt wouldn’t and can’t attack Ethiopia. That’s why they settled for talks. It was the only option available. Attacking Ethiopia means going through Sudan or Eritrea airspace or ground. If they bomb the GERD dam in Ethiopia, their own Aswan high dam is a target of revenge attack. Besides both have anti aircraft defense systems that makes those missions suicidal.
PM Abiy as a former spook is well briefed on domestic and foreign matters. Internally he knows Ethiopia has been falsifying its economic numbers to project rapid economic growth numbers. I admire their infrastructure projects. However it was purely driven by government. Their private sector is almost nonexistent and their economy is purely nationalised. If local investors don’t respond to the infrastructure projects around them then the economic growth projected will take long to materialize. Case of point 2 years after launching their SGR its not yet opened for commercial services. Its still on trial phase.
Lastly Ethiopia had been suffering from forex shortages for years. All their projects stalled. Stadiums and power plants. The others moved very slowly I.e dams and railways. Ethiopia was 1 month away from bankruptcy. That’s why they changed rapidly. Their private sector wasn’t drawing in enough forex from foreign trade for the economy leaving government only to work for it. That’s why the first thing he did as PM is to announce privatisation of key companies like ET airlines and Telecoms. He also realized that their economy has only one transport corridor through Djibouti. That’s is a strategic mistake. Djibouti right now is a complex matrix. They kick out Dubai World from operating its port despite them investing heavily on the port. Arbitration in London ruled in favour of Dubai but they refused. How that plays out is tricky. Ethiopia/Djibouti SGR has no direct link to the port, it operates from a dry dock miles from the port. That is the reason its taken long for freight services to take off almost 2 years since launch. Djibouti has three other competing interests side by side, usa/france, China and Japan. The problem with Port Sudan/Djibouti and Somaliland port is the extreme high temperatures experienced there. It adds to the cost since most containers need refrigeration to keep goods fresh, to avoid boiling or plastics from melting in containers. Ethiopia has now moved to seek other corridors, Lamu port is attractive for South Ethiopia, its has moderate temperature which is good for importing chemicals.
For once I agree a little with spear he didn’t sugar coat reality as he usually does. Ile shida iko Ethiopia sio jokes. And it goes all the way back to Mengistu. Very old economic and social problems that have never been addressed brought on especially during the communism era. The era of nationalisation. Na wakicheza, Somalia’s crisis is child’s play compared to the chaos that could hit Ethiopia.
Al jazeera recently did the unthinkable, they actually went to Israel to interview immigrants. Al jazeera being Arabic and naturally biased against Israel never sets foot there to give the viewer Israel’s version of the story when they fight with hamas.
Anyway, so the Al jazeera journalist interviewed a few Ethiopians and Eritreans on the streets. Wamejaa huko Tel aviv na Sudanese na Nigerians. The way those ethiopians describe the problems back home you might think ameongeza chumvi juu it’s too strange and bizarre. She’s very young, one Ethiopian immigrant. She refused to join the army which is mandatory, she was arrested stripped naked, beaten, raped etcetera and escaped on a boat and on foot hadi akafika Israel. Huyo dame alisema harudi ethiopia afadhali akufie Israel. Same story with Eritrean immigrants. In Eritrea kwanza you are conscripted in the army for life, upende usipende. A slave soldier defending against your cousins the Ethiopians. Na hulipwi. Hio story ya forced conscription ndio kwanza inatuma youths wahepe.
What I’ve never understood is how Ethiopia allowed Eritrea to keep the entire coastline. How do you just allow yourselves to be landlocked? They should have retained some access to the sea, even if it’d have been some 30 to 50 kms of coastline.
apa nayo kwa being forced into militart waliongeza chumvi, royco na aramat, things are bad in ethiopia esp. the socio-economics, hundreds if not thousands of families live in the streets.
however infra-wise, they have done a solid job.
interestingly even tigreans themselves know that the govt. is so biased towards them, and they want this changed because they have realised its a ticking time bomb
Si walichapwa kama burukenge na Eritrea in a 30 year war. leo ni vita baridi inaendelea in preparation for round 3 or is it 4. Round 2 ilikuwa 1998. Eritrea ni kama Sparta you are born a soldier, at least according to the deranged warlord Mr. Isaias Aferwerki.
That Ethiopian/Eritrea civil war took decades and both of them nearly collapsed economically. It wasn’t their wish, the fight had to stop. Million of Ethiopians were starving as they fought a civil war.
link to this Al jazeera story
Forced conscription is nothing new in that part of the world. Ni part of life. They have an ongoing battle with Eritrea since the 70’s. Eritrea haijashiba na coastline they want more land. In such a conflict since no one is too willing to fight, mtaingizwa mpende msipende.
About doing a solid job, hio ni maendeleo ya serikali ya ki imla sio maendeleo ya raiya. This was a communist state led by the devil himself: Mengistu haile mariam currently hiding in Zimbabwe don’t know if the recent grenade attacks are related. The inter tribal fractions he left behind have never been dealt with. There’s still a secret police, torture, mass arrests, same old communist tactics. The govt. cooks figures about development just like in other dictatorships. Mkubwa akiamua leo ni dam, ni vivyo hivyo, hameni nyinyi wote maumbwa. Mkubwa akiamua for him to rule in peace atawagawanisha vipande vipande tribe pitted against tribe so you can’t align together against him, he does exactly that.
It’s history is a bit complex. Eritrea was never a part of Ethiopia per se, even during the colonial times. Eritrea was colonized by Italy while Ethiopia fought off colonization. When Italy was defeated in WW2, Eritrea became a British protectorate.
In 1952 the UN adopted that Eritrea would be self-governing for domestic affairs through an elected Eritrean Parliament while trade, foreign affairs and defense would be handled in a federal status with the Government of Ethiopia.
But in 1962, after a series of political machinations, the government of Ethiopia annulled the Eritrean Parliament and annexed Eritrea as one of the provinces of Ethiopia.
and then the war started for liberation from Ethiopia started, for a tad long 30 years until 1991!
Eritrea is very confused right now. Your biggest enemy just accepts all resolutions and offers peace overnight. From yesterday its over. PM Abiy hosted the Eritrea delegation and peace terms were agreed. The border towns they argued about has now been given to Eritrea. Ethiopia wants full access to Eritrea port and to prove his point ET airlines will immediately resume flights to Asmara. Eritrea is now in a hurry to fulfill this breakthrough just in case anything happens later.
[MEDIA=twitter]1011813359182860290[/MEDIA]
Interesting, Eritrea and Ethiopia will benefit from the new situation.
Nime jifunza mengi,ma fala hizi.
No freedom of expressions in those countries
I think the new PM is genuine, Ethiopia needs Eritrea as much as Eritrea needs Ethiopia.