I mean, isn’t tribe still the first factor, before one starts thinking whether or not they are a hustler? For instance, would a Luo hustler support ruto, in spite of being a hustler?
So tribe still counts for something.
Now in terms of tribal arithmetic, doesn’t raila still have 99% of Luo? 80% of Luhya? 40% of Kamba? 80% of Kisii? 60% of coastals? 10% of Kikuyu?
As for Ruto, other than 98% Kalenjin, 95% meru, 90% kikuyu and 50-60% Kamba, where else does he really do well?
Sometimes it just happens that Ruto has the louder supporters (the way Raila used to do when he was the ‘protest vote’ candidate).
But in reality, this thing is perhaps too close to call.
Its already called, its not the voters that are to decide who wins.
Its simple, if Ruto numbers indicate he will win, IEBC systems go down and Raila is declared winner.
Next…
What makes you think that Raila has 80% of Luhyas? you really are out of your mind
Elections isha amuliwa and I hope you now know the president. Let us begin focusing on Election aftermaths
Hahaha. Deep state. Bora msililie kwa choo after losing
What percentage do you think Ruto will get from western? And I hope you are currently in Western like I am…sio mambo na social media
Expecting ruto to do very well in western is like expecting raila to do very well in meru. Just as the merus usually vote with the kikuyu, so do the luhyas usually vote with the luo.
is there a chance of the electoral process being long drawn?
Am surprised when I see kenya kwanza sympathisers project a 50% win for Ruto in Western…they will be in for a rude shock
if those are the projections on the basis of which you have been celebrating your likely “win” then there may be some element of delusion. Truth be told, the only new voters that ruto seems to have gained (over what jubilee/tna/urp used to get) is some sizeable chunk of the kamba and a few extra coastal votes. The rest I think ziko tu vile zilikuwa, but with possible lower turnout in central because the election seems to be causing the people there some conflicting feelings. Plus the iebc this time seems determined to deliver a truly clean thing…, But that is just my 2 cents worth, and you shouldn’t add much weight to it.
Western people believe that their ‘kingship’ will come through the lake. This is not just some idle supersitition, but very analytical thinking when you come to think of it.
As usual, Chebukati will be briefing us on how the rain has affected election materials transportation in some regions. He will also brief us that the results we are seeing over the TV are not the actual results. He will claim some areas have failed to submit the results due to network coverage problems. Finally, Chebu will take long to announce the result. And finally will announce the Thief as the President. Shortly, chaos will erupt few regions within Kenya but police will manage to control the protest. Na kazi itaendelea to
IT HAS ALREADY BEEN DECIDED.
YOUR VOTE DOSN’T MATTER
What tribe are you? It would be very interesting to know. The people who used to say that are Bukusus. Elijah Wanameme is unknown beyond river Nzoia. The same bukusus that are in UDA more than any other subtribe (including the Maragoli). You heard Raila himself crying about Bungoma. Just wait, elections are one week from now
The only county that Ruto stands a chance in Western is Bungoma.
Any other thing is a delusion you use to make you sleep well.
What percentage of Luhyas are the Bukusus? 20%? Ojingaism is a curse.
I don’t want to engage in cheap insults, but ever heard of something called statistics?
If Ruto is to win in Bungoma, it won’t be 100%. Or 90%.
Let me do one better. Or 70%.
Now, do your village maths and explain to this forum how it translates to Ruto getting 50% of the Western vote.