Is UBI our only chance to end poverty in Kenya for good?

NYC/NBO

Village Elder
#1
AI and automation is going to wipe out so many jobs after Covid. Things were already bad before but for the average Kenyan (African) things will get much worse.
Assumption: Most Kenyans are by default barred from participating in the global economy. At best your average Kenyan is a CONSUMER only. They don't participate in the formal economy in anyway but consumption. In this regard, indigenous Africans are like most native people across the world. In America, natives are poorer than average Americans but they are not destitute. They receive free housing, free income, free education, free uni etc because native reservations have been historically barred from participating in the formal economy. In Kenya we have these 2 options.

Option 1: National budget (most of it is foreign aid) is determined by a few policymakers. Majority of this money gets stolen. Kenyan mwananchi are lucky if they see a fraction of this. Very few politically connected folks get super rich. Majority stay poor. We pretend to rely on "hustling" and tuside projects but these can not move people out of poverty en mass.

Option 2: Siphon half of our annual budget DIRECLY to Kenyans....again most if this would be stolen money any away so why not allow the average Kenyan to eat it? Absolutely NO conditions. For example, ondoa every mud hut/slum in the country and guarantee housing for EVERY Kenyan. Provide a monthly payment (i.e, 10,000 ksh) to every Kenyan adult. Let Kenyans do whatever they want to do with that money. Kama ni pombe, chukula, majengo, bills, holiday, shopping, savings, etc...the money will go back to the local economy and it will allow Kenyans to consume local goods with the right incentives. This could remove poverty in a single generation but most importantly it would allow for a social order because the gap for people who will money in automation vs those who don't (majority of Africans) will only get wider until we find a way to deal w/this.

https://www.peoplespolicyproject.or...ding-claims-about-basic-income-and-inflation/
 
#3
Most Kenyans are by default barred from participating in the global economy.
This is true because the cost of production in Kenya is prohibitive.
According to analysts
Cost of electricity for households for businesses
  • Kenya USD 0.22 USD 0.18
  • Ghana USD 0.06 USD 0.13
  • Tanzania USD 0.11 USD 0.10
  • Ethiopia USD 0.01 USD 0.02
  • Egypt USD 0.04 USD 0.07
  • South Africa USD 0.11 USD 0.05
  • Uganda USD 0.18 USD 0.16
  • Nigeria USD 0.07 USD 0.11
As you can see Kenyans cannot compete because Kenya power charges too much for electricity. And it is a monopoly so you either use them or stay without electricity.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/#hl100
 

Purple

Moderator
Staff member
#4
The only way Universal Basic Income can work is if work done by humans becomes illegal. AI has to do like 90% ++ of production.
If there's a huge chunk of the population working, employers will be forced to pay more than the UBI pays, so it just adds to hyperinflation. Private property must also be confiscated by the government, otherwise if your landlord knows that the 5 people who live in his house make 50k a month, he can't charge the same 10k he's (also) getting from the govt.
 

spear

Village Sponsor
#5
This is true because the cost of production in Kenya is prohibitive.
According to analysts
Cost of electricity for households for businesses
  • Kenya USD 0.22 USD 0.18
  • Ghana USD 0.06 USD 0.13
  • Tanzania USD 0.11 USD 0.10
  • Ethiopia USD 0.01 USD 0.02
  • Egypt USD 0.04 USD 0.07
  • South Africa USD 0.11 USD 0.05
  • Uganda USD 0.18 USD 0.16
  • Nigeria USD 0.07 USD 0.11
As you can see Kenyans cannot compete because Kenya power charges too much for electricity. And it is a monopoly so you either use them or stay without electricity.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/#hl100
Whoever wrote this price is very wrong. Nigeria pays less for power than South Africa? The most expensive power in Africa is in Nigeria. Ghana power prices are also higher since they signed up twice too many private power producers than they need. Only Egypt and Ethiopia are correct. Then whatever advantage Tz has or SA on pricing is undone by load shedding. Our power maybe more costly but at least we have the third most reliable power transmission network in the continent. Only Mauritius and Egypt are slightly better. For our power prices to come down is down to President Uhuru not to renew those diesel power plants owned by Biwott iber africa, nyayo Aggreko, aga khan Tsavo, kibaki Thika power and the rest.
 

Gitonga

Village Elder
#6
"Free" stuff from the government has to be paid for by someone else.
And UBI isn't feasible in Kenya
10k per adult assuming 20 million adults is 200 billion a month or 2.4 trillion a year.. More than the KRA collects lol
The only way out of poverty is to make production and exports less nightmarish.. Simple things like reducing taxes on fuel can have major economic benefits
 

Gitonga

Village Elder
#7
Whoever wrote this price is very wrong. Nigeria pays less for power than South Africa? The most expensive power in Africa is in Nigeria. Ghana power prices are also higher since they signed up twice too many private power producers than they need. Only Egypt and Ethiopia are correct. Then whatever advantage Tz has or SA on pricing is undone by load shedding. Our power maybe more costly but at least we have the third most reliable power transmission network in the continent. Only Mauritius and Egypt are slightly better. For our power prices to come down is down to President Uhuru not to renew those diesel power plants owned by Biwott iber africa, nyayo Aggreko, aga khan Tsavo, kibaki Thika power and the rest.
Just look at those names and tell us whether there is any hope of Uhuru doing that
 

Arnono

Village Elder
#8
AI and automation is going to wipe out so many jobs after Covid. Things were already bad before but for the average Kenyan (African) things will get much worse.
Assumption: Most Kenyans are by default barred from participating in the global economy. At best your average Kenyan is a CONSUMER only. They don't participate in the formal economy in anyway but consumption. In this regard, indigenous Africans are like most native people across the world. In America, natives are poorer than average Americans but they are not destitute. They receive free housing, free income, free education, free uni etc because native reservations have been historically barred from participating in the formal economy. In Kenya we have these 2 options.

Option 1: National budget (most of it is foreign aid) is determined by a few policymakers. Majority of this money gets stolen. Kenyan mwananchi are lucky if they see a fraction of this. Very few politically connected folks get super rich. Majority stay poor. We pretend to rely on "hustling" and tuside projects but these can not move people out of poverty en mass.

Option 2: Siphon half of our annual budget DIRECLY to Kenyans....again most if this would be stolen money any away so why not allow the average Kenyan to eat it? Absolutely NO conditions. For example, ondoa every mud hut/slum in the country and guarantee housing for EVERY Kenyan. Provide a monthly payment (i.e, 10,000 ksh) to every Kenyan adult. Let Kenyans do whatever they want to do with that money. Kama ni pombe, chukula, majengo, bills, holiday, shopping, savings, etc...the money will go back to the local economy and it will allow Kenyans to consume local goods with the right incentives. This could remove poverty in a single generation but most importantly it would allow for a social order because the gap for people who will money in automation vs those who don't (majority of Africans) will only get wider until we find a way to deal w/this.

https://www.peoplespolicyproject.or...ding-claims-about-basic-income-and-inflation/
Option 2 would have been the best way for Vumbistan. However, due to the many reasons you, I and a majority of the people in the forum know, it won't happen unless through 'forced actions'
 

NYC/NBO

Village Elder
#11
The only way Universal Basic Income can work is if work done by humans becomes illegal. AI has to do like 90% ++ of production.
If there's a huge chunk of the population working, employers will be forced to pay more than the UBI pays, so it just adds to hyperinflation. Private property must also be confiscated by the government, otherwise if your landlord knows that the 5 people who live in his house make 50k a month, he can't charge the same 10k he's (also) getting from the govt.
AI is already doing a lot of economic production, I don't think it would be illegal in as much as it will be inefficient. And yes, employers will have to pay more but they will also be hiring less people and making more money. For instance, a 10 person local kibanda restaurant staff can go down to a 3 person unit with automation (online orders, using point of sale software for orders/reports instead of pen and paper etc) and would still be able to make more money with a smaller staff....same with online banking, manufacturing, e-commerce, etc. Property rights are still respected, i.e, Alaska has had UBI for decades and has same rights. I think the property market would be affected by people moving back to rural areas for better value for their money + no need to chase city jobs. Slum landlords will be driven out of the market or forced to upgrade their rental units to compete. This would hurt cheaper units like bedsitters but the quality of amenities in middle class housing say 25k/monthly range would increase.
 

Purple

Moderator
Staff member
#13
For instance, a 10 person local kibanda restaurant staff can go down to a 3 person unit with automation (online orders, using point of sale software for orders/reports instead of pen and paper etc) and would still be able to make more money with a smaller staff....
Who are those “3 people” that will agree to work for minimum wage when the govt can provide a comfortable living without such burdensome work? What about the profit being made by the kibanda owner, does he get to keep it for himself or hand it over to the govt? If he doesn’t, where will the govt find money to pay UBI? Why would people take the risk of investing if their profits maintain folks busy sleeping and resting at home?
 

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